Monday, June 29, 2009
安德烈•科斯托蘭尼(Andre Kostolany)判斷市場之法
如何判斷市場，投機大師安德烈•科斯托蘭尼(Andre Kostolany)生前有以下的看法:
1) 在出現不利消息時，市場並沒有下跌，就是市場出現超賣，行情已接近最低點的徵兆。相反地，市場對有利消息不再有反應，就是超買和行情暫時處在最高點的信號。
2) 如果行情下跌時，某一段時間裏成交量很大，這表示有大量股票從猶豫的投資者手裏，轉移到固執的投資者手裏。也就是說，如果成交量增加，行情仍然繼續下跌時，就是已經接近下一次上漲起點的信號。
3) 當成交量小，且指數還繼續下跌時，就表示市場前景堪慮。相反地，當成交量愈來愈大，股票還不斷看漲時，也是前景堪慮。
4) 當成交量小時，如果指數看漲，這種情形就非常有利。
以下的文字，或者能概括安德烈•科斯托蘭尼的意思:
當他們確認市場的趨勢後(通常此行情趨勢已經發展)，便會大舉投入市場活動(追貨或是沽貨)而造成大增的成交量。
然而，當大部份猶豫的市場參與者都買入了股票(將手頭的股票沽得七七八八)，即是有更多的利好消息亦難以再度推高股價(更多的利淡消息亦難以再度壓低股價)。
隨後只要不多的交易下單盤便能令市場的趨勢方向180度大反轉。
posted by 阿爾伯特
1) 在出現不利消息時，市場並沒有下跌，就是市場出現超賣，行情已接近最低點的徵兆。相反地，市場對有利消息不再有反應，就是超買和行情暫時處在最高點的信號。
2) 如果行情下跌時，某一段時間裏成交量很大，這表示有大量股票從猶豫的投資者手裏，轉移到固執的投資者手裏。也就是說，如果成交量增加，行情仍然繼續下跌時，就是已經接近下一次上漲起點的信號。
3) 當成交量小，且指數還繼續下跌時，就表示市場前景堪慮。相反地，當成交量愈來愈大，股票還不斷看漲時，也是前景堪慮。
4) 當成交量小時，如果指數看漲，這種情形就非常有利。
以下的文字，或者能概括安德烈•科斯托蘭尼的意思:
- 當成交量在大升後，在更多的利好行情而沒有繼續上升，相反在下降的成交量下行情向下走，這可能便是市場的反向訊號。
- 當成交量在大跌後，在更多的利淡行情而沒有繼續下跌，相反在下降的成交量下行情向上走，這可能便是市場的反向訊號。
當他們確認市場的趨勢後(通常此行情趨勢已經發展)，便會大舉投入市場活動(追貨或是沽貨)而造成大增的成交量。
然而，當大部份猶豫的市場參與者都買入了股票(將手頭的股票沽得七七八八)，即是有更多的利好消息亦難以再度推高股價(更多的利淡消息亦難以再度壓低股價)。
隨後只要不多的交易下單盤便能令市場的趨勢方向180度大反轉。
posted by 阿爾伯特
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
結算期前最新業務狀況匯報 25-6-09
渣打集團有限公司（連同其附屬公司，稱為「集團」）將在截至二零零九年六月三十日止半年度的結算期前與分析員和投資者進行研討。本匯報詳述在研討中將會提及的資料詳情。
集團行政總裁Peter Sands表示：「渣打在今年首五個月內繼續再次取得強勁表現，收入和溢利水平再創紀錄。雖然我們經營所在的若干市場的經濟環境呈現初步好轉的跡象，同時亦看到市場持續受壓的現象。由此預測經濟會持續復甦顯然為時尚早，因此我們對未來前景仍持審慎態度。我們會繼續維持嚴謹作風，堅定地專注於良好銀行營運的基本要素－流動資金、資金安排、資本、風險及成本。我們經營所在市場的經濟下滑程度，將會較西方市場為輕，加上我們謹慎的業務模式，集團已作好充分準備，期待於市況好轉時受惠。集團的流動資金十分充裕、資本基礎雄厚，可隨時拓展業務。」
除另有說明外，凡提述二零零八年均指該年上半年。
整體表現－損益賬 :
渣打繼續表現強勁，截至五月底收入及除稅前經營溢利均創出新高。
收入增長受商業銀行業務非常強勁的表現所帶動，但部分增幅受個人銀行業務收入較低所抵銷。
在集團整體而言，淨息差因債務的邊際利潤受壓而輕微下降，但大部分獲以商業銀行業務為主的較高資產邊際利潤所抵銷。
集團一如既往繼續嚴謹控制開支。自二零零八年第三季以來，集團員工數目逐月下降，與二零零八年上半年比較，投資開支一直嚴加規範，而可酌情支配的開銷亦控制得宜。
因此，根據截至五月底的資料，集團於二零零九年上半年的業績會非常強勁，反映商業銀行業務在收入方面保持動力，以及嚴緊的成本控制措施收效，使集團在面對經濟持續不明朗時突顯其靈活應變能力。
整體表現－資產負債表
資產質素大致與我們的預期相符。鑒於目前的外在環境，集團部分客戶正面對更大壓力，導致本年度第二季出現較高減值。回顧股市狀況，二零零九年至今私募股票或策略投資並無出現重大減值。
資產抵押證券組合的賬面值由二零零八年十二月三十一日的38億美元下降至二零零九年五月三十一日約32億美元，主要是因贖回所致。於今年首五個月內資產抵押證券組合的減值極微。
集團流動資金維持十分充裕，資產對存款比率維持與二零零八年底相若水平。集團繼續採納保守的資金結構，於未來數年需要在資本市場進行再融資的金額非常低。集團在銀行同業市場依然是主要的淨貸款人。
集團繼續保持穩健的資本水平，一級資本和總資本比率均超出我們制定的目標範圍。
集團一直積極管理其資本結構的成效，如先前報告所述，集團於第二季就次級票據回購及轉換要約確認收益2.48億美元。此外，集團已於六月成功發行15億美元的儲備資本票據（一級資本創新票據）。
由於衍生工具按市價計算的價值已有所下降，令資產負債表規模自上年底開始減縮。對衍生工具作出調整後，資產負債表增長有限。風險加權資產增長得到良好控制，自年底以來錄得溫和增長。
業務表現
個人銀行業務
個人銀行業務收入持續受壓，反映債務邊際利潤減縮及財富管理產品銷情欠佳的影響。
儘管預計二零零九年第二季收入將勝於第一季，預期上半年收入將較二零零八年下半年為低。
個人銀行業務繼續改變其經營策略，更加注重以客戶為中心的經營模式。通過一系列改善措施，包括提高交叉銷售比率、聘用優秀的資深客戶經理、優化和提升電話中心的效率以及簡化交易流程，大大提升了業務的發展動力及效益。
從產品的角度來看，按揭業務表現出色，特別是在香港，按揭業務規模及收益率均有所上升。
儘管財富管理業務不斷吸收存款，但存款量增長並不足以抵銷債務利潤率的大幅下降。投資產品需求持續呆滯，而且自二零零八年底以來整體上並無顯著改善。雖然香港等若干地區的每日銷售量有輕微復甦勢頭，但市場仍普遍持審慎態度。股票產品銷售疲弱在一定程度上被外匯及保險產品需求回升所彌補。
屬債務帶動的中小企業務，一直受到債務利潤率的下降壓力、持續轉向有抵押業務及消減現有組合風險的影響。
集團繼續採取謹慎方針以管理開支。經計及外匯的影響以及美國運通銀行所帶來的成本協同效益，預期開支將較二零零八年下半年低逾10%（未計Private Equity Management Group Inc（「保盛豐集團」）的影響）。
誠如今年較早前宣佈，集團已同意向客戶購回保盛豐集團發行的結構性票據。該等票據的面值約為1.90億美元，乃由渣打於收購新竹國際商業銀行（「新竹商銀」）前由新竹商銀在台灣銷售。該銷售業務隨即被停止經營。預期大部分面值金額需要作出撥備並於第二季視作開支扣除。
個人銀行業務的資產質量及貸款減值大致與預期一致。與第一季比較，第二季貸款減值輕微增加數千萬美元，主要由印度、巴基斯坦及阿聯酋的狀況進一步轉差所致。
個人銀行業務貸款組合繼續受惠於積極的風險管理方針、專注於有抵押資產及按揭業務維持穩健的貸款價值比率。
有抵押貸款帶動資產溫和增長，特別是在集團佔有一定市場份額的韓國、香港及新加坡市場。
個人銀行業務持續吸納客戶存款，在香港（支薪賬戶增長良好）、新加坡（活期賬戶不斷增加）及韓國尤其強勁。
商業銀行業務
商業銀行業務至今錄得非常強勁的上半年度業績。該業務繼續深化與現有客戶的關係，帶動強勁的客戶收益勢頭。
該業務的市場份額擴大，資產的邊際利潤上升，且收入增長來源亦有所增加。於第一季創下紀錄佳績後，四月份表現良好，而五月份則更顯強勢。
今年首五個月的收入遠較二零零八年為高，且平均分佈於各地區、客戶類別及產品。
其中以新加坡、中東及其他南亞地區、香港及韓國表現特別出色。
儘管集團的自營賬戶收入有大幅增長，反映二零零九年最初數月的有利市況，客戶收入仍佔商業銀行業務總收入的極大部分。
核心商業銀行業務表現出色，由於重定價格措施增加淨息差，借貸及交易業務自二零零八年下半年以來增長強勁。對於集團為其主要交易銀行的客戶，集團在其業務中所佔份額正日益增加。
在交易及現金管理業務方面，集團取得更大市場份額，表現優於市場趨勢。企業融資於上半年表現出色，已完成多項重大交易，並有多項交易在籌備中。商品業務有可觀增長，反映先前在該方面的投資取得成果以及錄得若干大型交易（尤其在中東和亞洲進行者）。
集團的自營賬戶收入表現亦相當理想，乃因集團善用市場波幅和交易機會而達致。市場條件在今年首數月尤其有利。定息及商品交易表現突出。受孶息曲綫陡斜環境下累計收益增加及銷售證券收益的推動，資產負債管理業務由年初至今表現出色。有關持倉逐漸到期，現正由較低的孶息水平所取代。
於第二季，集團亦完成若干主要融資變現，雖然與二零零八年上半年的數額比較顯著較低，反映市況有所好轉。
成本主要受支付表現相關的報酬所推動，與經風險調整的收益走勢一致。嚴格控制一般業務成本增長，以使收入大幅高於支出。
商業銀行業務信貸質素於第二季漸趨惡化。商業銀行業務貸款減值於上半年很可能較二零零八年下半年為高但會低於二零零八年下半年商業銀行業務的貸款及其他減值總額。
雖然集團於二零零八年為其作出撥備的衍生工具倉盤的絕對規模已縮減，但集團於二零零九年仍要進一步增加貸款減值。集團持續採取積極管理風險措施，並在尚未明朗的經濟環境下，高度警覺地從事業務經營。
由於集團仍是銀行業重組的主要受益者，集團仍維持強健的客戶基礎並持續發展，而在同業對手正退出或縮減規模的集團業務所在核心地區尤其明顯。集團於過去數年已增強實力，從而可在市場中把握發展機會。
集團對商業銀行業務的資產增長非常嚴謹。即使計入拖欠付款可能轉移所造成的影響，風險加權資產的增長自去年底以來仍受到有效控制。
韓國
集團在韓國繼續取得良好進展。集團為韓國首家獲准採用進階內部評級基準計算法計算資本的銀行，亦為首家獲准成立金融控股公司的外資公司。
整體業績數字因韓圜於二零零九年上半年迄今較二零零八年上半年貶值逾35%而受到重大影響。
由年初至五月底止，雖然按固定貨幣基準計算，收入錄得中位單位數的增長，但按整體基準計算，收入較二零零八年同期有所下降。
個人銀行業務收入因財富管理銷售沉寂、繼續下調中小企業務風險及債務邊際利潤持續收窄而減少。按揭業務自二零零八年下半年以來已呈現收入迅速攀升的良好勢頭。
商業銀行業務收入由年初至今錄得雙位數字增長，幾乎完全由客戶收入所帶動。
開支得到良好控制，反映先前期間進行的重組帶來的裨益以及貨幣貶值對開支方面帶來正面影響。
貸款減值上升影響上半年至今的溢利。減值增加乃由於中小企信貸環境疲弱以及因商業銀行衍生工具業務進一步作出撥備所致。
結論
儘管全球環境仍不明朗，集團亦對未來採取審慎態度，根據截至五月底創紀錄的收入及溢利，集團今年上半年的業績依然強勁。商業銀行業務繼續因貫徹執行其以客戶為中心的策略而得益，由年初至今表現極佳。個人銀行業務繼續轉變業務模式，專注於最能因經濟好轉受惠的項目。集團根基穩固；擁有十分充裕的流動資金及雄厚資本，並已作出審慎的預先資金安排以及嚴格控制風險與成本。集團已準備就緒，可隨時拓展業務。
集團行政總裁Peter Sands表示：「渣打在今年首五個月內繼續再次取得強勁表現，收入和溢利水平再創紀錄。雖然我們經營所在的若干市場的經濟環境呈現初步好轉的跡象，同時亦看到市場持續受壓的現象。由此預測經濟會持續復甦顯然為時尚早，因此我們對未來前景仍持審慎態度。我們會繼續維持嚴謹作風，堅定地專注於良好銀行營運的基本要素－流動資金、資金安排、資本、風險及成本。我們經營所在市場的經濟下滑程度，將會較西方市場為輕，加上我們謹慎的業務模式，集團已作好充分準備，期待於市況好轉時受惠。集團的流動資金十分充裕、資本基礎雄厚，可隨時拓展業務。」
除另有說明外，凡提述二零零八年均指該年上半年。
整體表現－損益賬 :
渣打繼續表現強勁，截至五月底收入及除稅前經營溢利均創出新高。
收入增長受商業銀行業務非常強勁的表現所帶動，但部分增幅受個人銀行業務收入較低所抵銷。
在集團整體而言，淨息差因債務的邊際利潤受壓而輕微下降，但大部分獲以商業銀行業務為主的較高資產邊際利潤所抵銷。
集團一如既往繼續嚴謹控制開支。自二零零八年第三季以來，集團員工數目逐月下降，與二零零八年上半年比較，投資開支一直嚴加規範，而可酌情支配的開銷亦控制得宜。
因此，根據截至五月底的資料，集團於二零零九年上半年的業績會非常強勁，反映商業銀行業務在收入方面保持動力，以及嚴緊的成本控制措施收效，使集團在面對經濟持續不明朗時突顯其靈活應變能力。
整體表現－資產負債表
資產質素大致與我們的預期相符。鑒於目前的外在環境，集團部分客戶正面對更大壓力，導致本年度第二季出現較高減值。回顧股市狀況，二零零九年至今私募股票或策略投資並無出現重大減值。
資產抵押證券組合的賬面值由二零零八年十二月三十一日的38億美元下降至二零零九年五月三十一日約32億美元，主要是因贖回所致。於今年首五個月內資產抵押證券組合的減值極微。
集團流動資金維持十分充裕，資產對存款比率維持與二零零八年底相若水平。集團繼續採納保守的資金結構，於未來數年需要在資本市場進行再融資的金額非常低。集團在銀行同業市場依然是主要的淨貸款人。
集團繼續保持穩健的資本水平，一級資本和總資本比率均超出我們制定的目標範圍。
集團一直積極管理其資本結構的成效，如先前報告所述，集團於第二季就次級票據回購及轉換要約確認收益2.48億美元。此外，集團已於六月成功發行15億美元的儲備資本票據（一級資本創新票據）。
由於衍生工具按市價計算的價值已有所下降，令資產負債表規模自上年底開始減縮。對衍生工具作出調整後，資產負債表增長有限。風險加權資產增長得到良好控制，自年底以來錄得溫和增長。
業務表現
個人銀行業務
個人銀行業務收入持續受壓，反映債務邊際利潤減縮及財富管理產品銷情欠佳的影響。
儘管預計二零零九年第二季收入將勝於第一季，預期上半年收入將較二零零八年下半年為低。
個人銀行業務繼續改變其經營策略，更加注重以客戶為中心的經營模式。通過一系列改善措施，包括提高交叉銷售比率、聘用優秀的資深客戶經理、優化和提升電話中心的效率以及簡化交易流程，大大提升了業務的發展動力及效益。
從產品的角度來看，按揭業務表現出色，特別是在香港，按揭業務規模及收益率均有所上升。
儘管財富管理業務不斷吸收存款，但存款量增長並不足以抵銷債務利潤率的大幅下降。投資產品需求持續呆滯，而且自二零零八年底以來整體上並無顯著改善。雖然香港等若干地區的每日銷售量有輕微復甦勢頭，但市場仍普遍持審慎態度。股票產品銷售疲弱在一定程度上被外匯及保險產品需求回升所彌補。
屬債務帶動的中小企業務，一直受到債務利潤率的下降壓力、持續轉向有抵押業務及消減現有組合風險的影響。
集團繼續採取謹慎方針以管理開支。經計及外匯的影響以及美國運通銀行所帶來的成本協同效益，預期開支將較二零零八年下半年低逾10%（未計Private Equity Management Group Inc（「保盛豐集團」）的影響）。
誠如今年較早前宣佈，集團已同意向客戶購回保盛豐集團發行的結構性票據。該等票據的面值約為1.90億美元，乃由渣打於收購新竹國際商業銀行（「新竹商銀」）前由新竹商銀在台灣銷售。該銷售業務隨即被停止經營。預期大部分面值金額需要作出撥備並於第二季視作開支扣除。
個人銀行業務的資產質量及貸款減值大致與預期一致。與第一季比較，第二季貸款減值輕微增加數千萬美元，主要由印度、巴基斯坦及阿聯酋的狀況進一步轉差所致。
個人銀行業務貸款組合繼續受惠於積極的風險管理方針、專注於有抵押資產及按揭業務維持穩健的貸款價值比率。
有抵押貸款帶動資產溫和增長，特別是在集團佔有一定市場份額的韓國、香港及新加坡市場。
個人銀行業務持續吸納客戶存款，在香港（支薪賬戶增長良好）、新加坡（活期賬戶不斷增加）及韓國尤其強勁。
商業銀行業務
商業銀行業務至今錄得非常強勁的上半年度業績。該業務繼續深化與現有客戶的關係，帶動強勁的客戶收益勢頭。
該業務的市場份額擴大，資產的邊際利潤上升，且收入增長來源亦有所增加。於第一季創下紀錄佳績後，四月份表現良好，而五月份則更顯強勢。
今年首五個月的收入遠較二零零八年為高，且平均分佈於各地區、客戶類別及產品。
其中以新加坡、中東及其他南亞地區、香港及韓國表現特別出色。
儘管集團的自營賬戶收入有大幅增長，反映二零零九年最初數月的有利市況，客戶收入仍佔商業銀行業務總收入的極大部分。
核心商業銀行業務表現出色，由於重定價格措施增加淨息差，借貸及交易業務自二零零八年下半年以來增長強勁。對於集團為其主要交易銀行的客戶，集團在其業務中所佔份額正日益增加。
在交易及現金管理業務方面，集團取得更大市場份額，表現優於市場趨勢。企業融資於上半年表現出色，已完成多項重大交易，並有多項交易在籌備中。商品業務有可觀增長，反映先前在該方面的投資取得成果以及錄得若干大型交易（尤其在中東和亞洲進行者）。
集團的自營賬戶收入表現亦相當理想，乃因集團善用市場波幅和交易機會而達致。市場條件在今年首數月尤其有利。定息及商品交易表現突出。受孶息曲綫陡斜環境下累計收益增加及銷售證券收益的推動，資產負債管理業務由年初至今表現出色。有關持倉逐漸到期，現正由較低的孶息水平所取代。
於第二季，集團亦完成若干主要融資變現，雖然與二零零八年上半年的數額比較顯著較低，反映市況有所好轉。
成本主要受支付表現相關的報酬所推動，與經風險調整的收益走勢一致。嚴格控制一般業務成本增長，以使收入大幅高於支出。
商業銀行業務信貸質素於第二季漸趨惡化。商業銀行業務貸款減值於上半年很可能較二零零八年下半年為高但會低於二零零八年下半年商業銀行業務的貸款及其他減值總額。
雖然集團於二零零八年為其作出撥備的衍生工具倉盤的絕對規模已縮減，但集團於二零零九年仍要進一步增加貸款減值。集團持續採取積極管理風險措施，並在尚未明朗的經濟環境下，高度警覺地從事業務經營。
由於集團仍是銀行業重組的主要受益者，集團仍維持強健的客戶基礎並持續發展，而在同業對手正退出或縮減規模的集團業務所在核心地區尤其明顯。集團於過去數年已增強實力，從而可在市場中把握發展機會。
集團對商業銀行業務的資產增長非常嚴謹。即使計入拖欠付款可能轉移所造成的影響，風險加權資產的增長自去年底以來仍受到有效控制。
韓國
集團在韓國繼續取得良好進展。集團為韓國首家獲准採用進階內部評級基準計算法計算資本的銀行，亦為首家獲准成立金融控股公司的外資公司。
整體業績數字因韓圜於二零零九年上半年迄今較二零零八年上半年貶值逾35%而受到重大影響。
由年初至五月底止，雖然按固定貨幣基準計算，收入錄得中位單位數的增長，但按整體基準計算，收入較二零零八年同期有所下降。
個人銀行業務收入因財富管理銷售沉寂、繼續下調中小企業務風險及債務邊際利潤持續收窄而減少。按揭業務自二零零八年下半年以來已呈現收入迅速攀升的良好勢頭。
商業銀行業務收入由年初至今錄得雙位數字增長，幾乎完全由客戶收入所帶動。
開支得到良好控制，反映先前期間進行的重組帶來的裨益以及貨幣貶值對開支方面帶來正面影響。
貸款減值上升影響上半年至今的溢利。減值增加乃由於中小企信貸環境疲弱以及因商業銀行衍生工具業務進一步作出撥備所致。
結論
儘管全球環境仍不明朗，集團亦對未來採取審慎態度，根據截至五月底創紀錄的收入及溢利，集團今年上半年的業績依然強勁。商業銀行業務繼續因貫徹執行其以客戶為中心的策略而得益，由年初至今表現極佳。個人銀行業務繼續轉變業務模式，專注於最能因經濟好轉受惠的項目。集團根基穩固；擁有十分充裕的流動資金及雄厚資本，並已作出審慎的預先資金安排以及嚴格控制風險與成本。集團已準備就緒，可隨時拓展業務。
渣打商業銀行表現標青 盈利破紀錄
'26-6-09
【明報專訊】渣打集團(2888)在最新業務狀匯報中表示，今年首5個月業績表現強勁，收入及盈利都破紀錄，商業銀行業務表現尤其出色，然而個人銀行業務表現略差，公司努力壓縮成本，員工人數繼續按月下跌。
渣打行政總裁冼博德表示，集團經營所在的市場，經濟環境呈現初步好轉的舻象，但亦看到市場持續受壓的現象。現在就去預測經濟會持續復蘇為時尚早，集團對前景仍持審慎態度，會繼續維持謹慎作風。
集團整體上的淨息差，因債務的邊際利潤受壓輕微下降，但商業銀行的資產邊際利潤較高，有助抵銷部分息差受壓的影響。集團同時嚴格控制開支，自去年第3季以來，員工數目逐月下降，與去年上半年比較，投資開支亦嚴加規範。
渣 打指資產質素大致符合預期。基於外在環境，部分客戶面對更大壓力，導致今年第2季出現較高減值。但年初至今私募股票或策略投資並無出現重大減值。資產抵押 證券組合的帳面值，由去年底的38億美元(約296億港元)，下降至今年5月底的約32億美元(約250億港元)，主要是因贖回所致。集團流動資金十分充 裕，資產對存款比率維持與去年底相若水平，未來數年需要在資本市場進行再融資的金額非常低，在銀行同業市場依然是主要的淨貸款人。
個人業務持續受壓
個 人銀行業務方面，收入持續受壓，反映債務邊際利潤縮減，及財富管理產品銷情欠佳。儘管今年第2季收入將勝於第1季，預期上半年收入仍較去年下半年為低。但 按揭業務表現出色，尤其在本港，按揭業務規模及收益率均有所上升。商業銀行業務表現非常強勁，於第1季創下紀錄佳績後，4月份表現良好，而5月份則更顯強 勢。
Friday, June 12, 2009
The Riskiest Dividend Stocks
It's hard to go wrong with dividend-paying stocks.
But they aren't perfect
Good, better, best
Even companies with good payout ratios aren't all created equal. Yes, we want companies with safe dividends -- but we also want companies with growing dividends.
Any screen like this is merely the first step toward further research, but these candidates may be a good place to start.
But they aren't perfect
Good, better, best
Even companies with good payout ratios aren't all created equal. Yes, we want companies with safe dividends -- but we also want companies with growing dividends.
Two companies may have seemingly identical dividend yields, but if one has a history of hiking its payout significantly and frequently, and the other doesn't, the former suddenly becomes far more attractive. These companies recently had similar yields, but very different histories:
| Company | Dividend yield | 5-yr. avg. div. growth rate |
|---|---|---|
| MetLife (NYSE: MET) | 2.6% | 20% |
| Sherwin-Williams | 2.4% | 18% |
| Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) | 2.6% | 7% |
| Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) | 2.8% | 5% |
Data from DividendInvestor.com.
To see why this matters, just imagine buying $10,000 of stock with a 3.5% dividend yield. In the first year, you'll get $350. If that dividend grows by 4% per year for 20 years, it will ultimately amount to a $767 annual payout. But if it grows by 12%, it will become a $3,375 annual payout -- almost five times more, and more than 30% of your original investment.
What to do right now
The riskiest dividend is one that you can't count on. So, pick your dividend payers carefully -- but do pick some, because our downtrodden market currently offers some exceptionally strong yields.
The following candidates that surfaced when I screened for large caps with yields of 2.5% or more, five-year dividend growth rates of 10% or more, and five-year revenue growth rates of 10% or more:
| Company | Dividend yield | 5-yr div. growth | 5-yr. rev. growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novartis (NYSE: NVS) | 4.6% | 15% | 11% |
| CNOOC (NYSE: CEO) | 4.2% | 23% | 25% |
| MarathonOil | 3.1% | 16% | 14% |
| General Dynamics | 2.8% | 16% | 12% |
Any screen like this is merely the first step toward further research, but these candidates may be a good place to start.
5 Value Traps to Avoid Right Now
By Joe Magyer
I’ve concluded that there are five primary categories of these dreaded mistakes. Avoiding these five traps will save you time, money, and more than a little heartache.
History’s greatest investor, Warren Buffett, has two simple rules.
- Rule #1: Never lose money.
- Rule #2: Never forget rule #1.
I’ve concluded that there are five primary categories of these dreaded mistakes. Avoiding these five traps will save you time, money, and more than a little heartache.
1. The quarter-life crisis
These are a real heartbreaker. You find a dominant company whose once sky-high growth has stalled, and its shares along with it. “TechWidget Corp. is trading at only 15 times earnings right now, only half its five-year average!” you say. “Its earnings have doubled over the past five years, but the shares are down over the same time period. Sounds like a steal!”
Snap! You just walked into a value trap.
Investors falsely believe that names like Dell or eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) will see their relative valuations return to their headier days. They won’t.
Why? Captain Obvious would say that growth has slowed, technology evolved, and competition emerged. But all that misses the real reason. Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by chasing growth through overexpansion and high-profile acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up all that stock option-driven dilution.
Steer clear of flailing tech titans until they’re willing to follow the lead of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) into dividend-paying adulthood.
2. The soaring cyclical
Here’s the rub about cyclical stocks: Their valuations are counterintuitive. They always look the cheapest when they’ve reached their priciest, and look priciest when they’re reached their cheapest.
Take nearly any oilfield service stock from last summer as an example. Transocean (NYSE: RIG) looked dirt cheap via a crude, PEG-style valuation. But savvy investors know that cyclical companies’ profits mean-revert, which is why cyclical stocks’ P/E multiples stay low during booms and high during busts.
In other words, you should be looking at cyclical stocks as their P/Es expand, not shrink.
3. The small-cap Methuselah
The six-year small-cap bull run that came crashing to a halt last year was a painful reminder of a little-known value trap: the Small-Cap Methuselah.
Century-old small-caps you’d never heard of were wrapping up five-year runs of 20% annualized earnings growth. Analysts went gaga, extrapolating those growth rates forward like the party would never end. Valuations followed suit. Gaga analyst, meet mean-reversion.
You won’t find long-run compounding machines within the small-cap space. Show me a company with a long, proven history of creating serious shareholder value, and I’ll show you a mid- or large-cap stock.
4. The too-high yielder
A company usually has a high yield (think above 7%) for one of three reasons:
- It has limited growth potential, so managers return as much cash as they can to shareholders (think regional telecoms).
- The company is in a clear state of decline and investors expect a dividend cut (think newspapers).
- The company is in a tax-advantaged structure that doesn’t allow it to retain much capital (think REITs, MLPs, or BDCs).
5. The unopened book
I can already see the Ben Graham fanatics gearing up to peg me with tomatoes, but hear me out. Book values need to be adjusted -- especially heading into and during recessions.
Acquisition-happy companies inevitably end up slashing the goodwill they’d booked while making bloated acquisitions in the years previous. The book values of asset-centric plays (homebuilders, natural resource producers, etc.) also need a good tweaking to reflect the depressed values of those assets. And financials, well, what can I say? Just ask any Citigroup (NYSE: C) or AIG (NYSE: AIG) investor about the ease of assessing their balance sheets.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m all for buying stocks on the cheap. We do just that at Income Investor. But there’s a catch: We’re only interested in good values if they also happen to be great businesses, companies with years of exceptional performance behind and ahead of them. And, of course, ones that pay us to wait for our thesis to play out.
Wrapping the traps
To recap, you can smooth and improve your returns if you:
- Avoid the stalled-out growth stock undergoing a quarter-life crisis.
- Steer clear of hot small-caps with blah track records.
- Don’t get tripped up by seemingly cheap soaring cyclicals.
- Think twice about the yield that looks too good to be true.
- Don’t lean on inflated or unadjusted book values.
You’ve probably picked up on an underlying theme here: You need unconventionally conventional thinking if you want low-stress success in the stock market.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
This Is the Opportunity You've Been Waiting For
You know those old investing platitudes? Be greedy when others are fearful. Buy when there's blood in the streets. You make most of your money in a bear market -- you just don't know it at the time.
They're all true. And they've never been more applicable than right now.
Our economy is likely headed for some rough times, but there's little doubt that America will survive -- and ultimately thrive. In the words of Warren Buffett: "This country is going to be living better 10 years from now than it is now. It will be living better in 20 years from now than 10 years from now. ... We've got all the ingredients for a sensational future."
Buffett's been busy lately putting his money where his mouth is. He has made high-profile investments in General Electric and Goldman Sachs' preferred stock, and he's likely licking his chops right now at the prospect of deploying capital in this target-rich environment.
So if Buffett's buying, why aren't fund managers following suit?
Volatile present, sensational future
Many fund managers likely agree with Buffett's sentiments. And at today's prices, they wish they could be like Buffett and buy stocks. However, due to a panicked investing populace, that's simply not possible.
You see, when individual investors elect to withdraw their money from a mutual fund, the fund manager must quickly come up with the cash to redeem those investors. For the week ended Oct. 8, equity investors withdrew a whopping $43 billion from mutual funds, spurring a wave of selling by fund managers -- even though those managers likely still believed in the prospects of the stocks they were selling!
As Morningstar's Director of Equity Research Pat Dorsey explained in a recent video, these stock sales had "nothing to do with fundamentals, nothing to do with the underpinnings of our economy ... no matter what the stocks are, no matter how attractive those assets may be, [fund managers] have to sell them because they need to raise the cash to send those checks out" to their investors.
And that $43 billion figure doesn't even include hedge fund managers who are forced to sell stocks due to investor redemptions and margin calls!
As master money manager Ken Heebner -- skipper of the CGM Focus fund -- told USA Today, "The reason for the sharp decline is massive selling from hedge funds, not because they want to, but because they have to reduce their leverage ... it's the biggest margin call since 1929."Bad for funds, good for you
This indiscriminate selling likely explains why shares of quality companies have stumbled over the past month, even though the prospects of many of these companies have remained strong.
In his commentary to Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor, Jason Zweig wrote:
Anything over 60% [institutional ownership] suggests that a stock is scarcely undiscovered and probably "overowned." When big institutions sell, they tend to move in lockstep, with disastrous results for the stock. Imagine all the Radio City Rockettes toppling off the front edge of the stage at once and you get the idea.
To see what he's talking about, take a look at the following table of great "overowned" companies:
| Company | Institutional Ownership % (as of Last Quarter) | Stock Performance Over the Past Month |
|---|---|---|
| Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) | 68% | (41.5%) |
| Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) | 65.6% | (19.3%) |
| McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) | 79.8% | (17.6%) |
| Merck (NYSE: MRK) | 80.4% | (23.7%) |
| Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) | 66.4% | (14.6%) |
| PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) | 74.3% | (16.2%) |
| Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) | 60.6% | (15.3%) |
Now, I'll admit that these stocks are not dropping solely because of redemptions -- there are some tangible reasons for these losses (downgrades, concerns about consumer spending in a tough economy, etc.). But really, these are seven solid companies that will still be making money decades from now -- yet their shares have all slumped horribly over the past month. The fundamental quality of these businesses has not deteriorated over the course of four weeks -- just the companies' share prices.
Buy now, thank me later
Mutual fund and hedge fund managers can't buy shares in these companies right now -- but you can. If you have money sitting around that you're comfortable committing for the next three to five years, and if you can stomach a little short-term volatility, now is a great time to scoop up shares of quality companies on the cheap.
The Only Way to Profit From the Recovery
The turnaround you won't see coming
When stocks recover (and they will recover), they will do so dramatically and without warning.
Will you make back all of the money you've lost this year over the next two? It's unlikely, given that the market would have to nearly double from here to get back to its October 2007 high.
But it is likely that if you pull out of the market, you'll miss out on the recovery. And if that recovery resembles the magnitude of those we've seen before, missing out will add many years to the process of building back your wealth.
By simply holding some of these stocks, you could have come out ahead. If you continued to add new money to these stocks while they were down, you would have further accelerated your recovery process, and ended up coming out way ahead.
What's the point?
I've heard from many investors recently who are sick of the market and just want to get out. That's a dangerous move -- because the only way to profit from the recovery is to make sure you still have money in the market.
But it's equally dangerous move to keep all of your money in the market, in the hopes that a recovery is imminent and you'll profit from it. While a recovery is coming, no one knows when it's coming. So make sure you:
When stocks recover (and they will recover), they will do so dramatically and without warning.
Period | Market Decline | DJIA Change 1 Year After Decline | DJIA Change 2 Years After Decline (cumulative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 1961 -- June 1962 | (27.1%) | 32.3% | 55.1% |
| Feb. 1966 -- May 1970 | (36.6%) | 43.6% | 53.9% |
| Jan. 1973 -- Dec. 1974 | (45.1%) | 42.2% | 66.5% |
| Sep. 1976 -- Feb. 1978 | (26.9%) | 9% | 15.1% |
| Aug. 1987 -- Oct. 1987 | (36.1%) | 22.9% | 54.3% |
| July 1990 -- Oct. 1990 | (21.2%) | 26.2% | 32.6% |
| Jan. 2000 -- March 2003 | (35.8%) | 34.6% | 43.2% |
| Average | (32.7%) | 29.4% | 45.8% |
| Oct. 2007 -- Dec. 2008 | (46.7%) | ? | ? |
Will you make back all of the money you've lost this year over the next two? It's unlikely, given that the market would have to nearly double from here to get back to its October 2007 high.
But it is likely that if you pull out of the market, you'll miss out on the recovery. And if that recovery resembles the magnitude of those we've seen before, missing out will add many years to the process of building back your wealth.
Company | Decline, Jan. 2000 – March 2003 | Change 2 Years After Decline |
|---|---|---|
| Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) | (74.7%) | 488.6% |
| Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) | (29.6%) | 97.5% |
| Boeing (NYSE: BA) | (38.2%) | 127.7% |
| Copart (Nasdaq: CPRT) | (40.9%) | 209.6% |
| Genentech (NYSE: DNA) | (48.5%) | 223.3% |
| McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) | (63.5%) | 121.6% |
| T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW) | (22.8%) | 114.8% |
By simply holding some of these stocks, you could have come out ahead. If you continued to add new money to these stocks while they were down, you would have further accelerated your recovery process, and ended up coming out way ahead.
What's the point?
I've heard from many investors recently who are sick of the market and just want to get out. That's a dangerous move -- because the only way to profit from the recovery is to make sure you still have money in the market.
But it's equally dangerous move to keep all of your money in the market, in the hopes that a recovery is imminent and you'll profit from it. While a recovery is coming, no one knows when it's coming. So make sure you:
- Have an emergency fund in place that you keep in a liquid, inflation-protected asset, such as a TIPS ETF.
- Make sure your bond exposure is in the proper ballpark. One handy rule of thumb is to make sure the percentage of your portfolio allocated to bonds is the same as your age. For example, if you're 40, you should be 40% in bonds.
- After confirming No. 1 and No. 2, continue to dollar-cost average into high-quality companies without trying to time the market.
3 Strategies for Superior Returns
Dr. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania has demonstrated that the stock market is the best long-term grower of wealth -- better than cash, bonds, or even gold, no matter what kind of volatility, bubbles, and crashes we endure along the way.
And that means you need to be in it. Always. Even when we're looking at the possibility of unprecedented lows.
Take advantage of it -- don't be ruled by it
Many people were surprised by the size of the drop last fall and winter, and many others have been surprised by the surge since March. If you were one of the 17 people who managed to perfectly time the drop and the bottom, congratulations. You can stop reading now.
However, if you are like the rest of us, and you wish to take advantage of the market, whether you're in today or not -- and especially if it drops anywhere near the 300s -- here are three strategies to improve your success at wealth-building.
And that means you need to be in it. Always. Even when we're looking at the possibility of unprecedented lows.
Take advantage of it -- don't be ruled by it
Many people were surprised by the size of the drop last fall and winter, and many others have been surprised by the surge since March. If you were one of the 17 people who managed to perfectly time the drop and the bottom, congratulations. You can stop reading now.
However, if you are like the rest of us, and you wish to take advantage of the market, whether you're in today or not -- and especially if it drops anywhere near the 300s -- here are three strategies to improve your success at wealth-building.
- Invest with an eye to the long term. Nobody can predict what the market will do in the next year or two, but over the long term, the stock prices of well-managed, steadily operating companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) tend to rise as their performance grows. In other words, as Warren Buffett's mentor Benjamin Graham once said, in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it's a weighing one.
- Move slowly as you enter a position. Since none of us can time the market, entering a position in thirds helps smooth out the inevitable volatility. If you want to invest $3,000 in one position, for example, invest only $1,000 at a time, waiting for other, better opportunities before adding more. This way, if it drops 25% in a week, you can buy more at a better price. On the flip side, if it jumps 25% in a week, you'll already have a stake.
- Stay within your circle of competence. Peter Lynch counseled, "Buy what you know." If you don't understand how a company makes money and what risks it faces, you probably shouldn't be invested in it. Buffett famously avoided technology stocks in the late 1990s, as the tech-fueled dot-com bubble was powered by the likes of Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO). He endured a lot of criticism, but when that bubble burst, he was the one who avoided getting bitten.
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