沽空is unattractive

Data Relating to Standard & Poor's Composite Index in Various Years

	Year(b)	1948	1953	1958	1963	1968	1971(d)
1	Closing price	15.2	24.81	55.21	75.02	103.9	100
2	Earned in current year	2.24	2.51	2.89	4.02	5.76	5.23
3	Average earnings of last 3 years	1.65	2.44	2.22	3.63	5.37	5.53
4	Dividend in current year	0.93	1.48	1.75	2.28	2.99	3.1
5	High-grade bond interest(a)	2.77%	3.08%	4.12%	4.36%	6.51%	7.58%
6	Wholesale-price index	87.9	92.7	100.4	105	108.7	114.3
	Ratios:
7	Price/last year's earnings	6.3x	9.9x	18.4x	18.6x	18.0x	19.2x
8	Price/3-year's earnings	9.2x	10.2x	17.6x	20.7x	19.5x	18.x
9	3-years' earning yield(c)	10.9%	9.8%	5.8%	4.8%	5.15%	5.53%
10	Dividend yield	5.6%	5.5%	3.3%	3.04%	2.87%	3.11%
11	Stock-earning yield/bond yield	3.96x	3.20x	1.41x	1.10x	0.80x	0.72x
12	Dividend yield/bond yield	2.1x	1.8x	0.80x	0.70x	0.44x	0.41x
13	Earning/book value(e)	11.2%	11.8%	12.8%	10.5%	11.5%	11.5%

a Yield on S&P AAA bonds
b Calender years in 1948-1968, plus year ended June 1971
c Earning yield means the earnings divided by the price, in%
d Price in Oct. 1971, equivalent to 900 for the DJIA
e Three-year average figures


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以上的列表是來自The Intelligent Investor-A Century of Stock-Market History, page 38.


雖然數據介於1948~1971年之間﹐我個人卻認為對今天的股市仍然有深層的意義。

當時﹐1971年﹐DJIA大約是900點﹐Graham在The Intelligent Investor fourth revised edition 曾經對1971年的股市﹐給予這樣的批評﹕

The 3-year price/earnings ratio for the market was lower in October 1971 than at year-end 1963 and 1968. It was about the same as in 1958, but much higher than in the early years of the long bull market. This important indicator, taken by it itself, could not be construed to indicate that the market was especially high in January 1972.

But when the interest yield on high-grade bonds is brought into the picture, the implications become much less favorable.

The reader will note from our table that the ratio of stock returns (earnings/price) to bond returns has grown worse during the entire period, so that the January 1972 figure was less favorable to stocks, by this criterion, than in any of the previous years examined.

When dividend yields are compared with bond yields we find that the relationship was completely reversed between 1948 and 1972. In the early year stocks yielded twice as much as bonds; now bonds yield twice as much, and more, than stocks.

Our final judgment is that the adverse change in the bond-yield/stock-yield ratio fully offset the better price/earnings ratio for late 1971, based on the 3-year earning figures. Hence our view of the early 1972 market level would tend to be the same as it was some 7 years ago,

that it is unattractive one from the standpoint of conservative investment.

1. Stock-earning yield/bond yield‹1
2. Dividend yield/bond yield‹1

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回到2011年動蕩不安的8月﹐今天我在某個熱門blog看到﹐該blog主說應該把圖表倒轉來看﹐沽空是順流﹐能睡好覺。

如果檢查現在的美國債券利息﹐我們知道2-30年的利息大約是0.19~3.40%﹐10年債息大約是2.09%。

我個人的看法﹐現在的情況﹐應該是Graham所說的反面﹐即係﹕

1. Stock-earning yield/bond yield›1
2. Dividend yield/bond yield›1

當我想到如此債息已經是維持了很長的日子﹐
當我想到El-Erian說這是 new-era﹐
當我看到買熊證的人逐漸增加

我認為沽空is unattractive