50%+X

Securities Analysis的第一章是“SURVEY AND APPROACH”﹐一定要閱讀﹐不管是賺錢還是虧損的時候﹐請一定要掃除掉樂觀或悲觀的心情﹐一定要閱讀。而且在這章的任何小節﹐有疑惑之處﹐是可以參考Intelligent Investor﹐再繼續下去。

A
In all of these instances he appears to be concerned with the intrinsic value of the security and more particularly with the discovery of discrepancies between the intrinsic value and the market price. In general term it is understood to be that intrinsic value which is justified by the fact, e.g., the assets, earnings, dividends, definite prospects.

價值-價格的分離是已經知道的事。

價值的四大來源--資產﹑盈利﹑股息和前景。

價值的正確數字﹐不是那麼的重要。

反而﹐最重要的是--足夠﹕

• 債券的保障
• 或股票的買賣--價值和價格的距離(多-少)

最重要的是--足夠


所有的前提﹐仍然是建築在正確的價值觀。至于如何建立正確的價值觀﹐有沒有例子可以參考﹖這章的例子﹕Wright Aeronautical﹐J.I. Case Company。
Intelligent Investor﹐有超過10個的例子。


到了這個階段﹐有可能是賺錢﹐也有可能是虧損。


Securities Analysis的第一章﹐某小節

B
Principal obstacles to success of the analysis :

1. Inadequate or Incorrect data
2. Uncertainties of the future
3. The irrational behavior of the market

以上的3個障礙﹐可以這樣說﹕

• The more questionable this assumption, the less valuable is the analysis.
• Hence this technique is more useful when applied to senior securities (which are protected against change) than to common stock;
• more useful when applied to a business of inherently stable character than to one subject to wide variations;
• and, finally, more useful when carried on under fairly normal general conditions than in times of great uncertainty and radical change.
  

In that portion of the analyst's activities which relates to the discovery of undervalued, and possibly of overvalued securities, he is more directly concerned with market price. For here the vindication of his judgment must be found largely in the ultimate market action of the issues. This field of analytical work may be said to rest upon a twofold assumption :

• first, that the market price is frequently out of line with the true value;
• second, that there is an inherent tendency for these disparities to correct themselves.

As to the truth of the former statement, there can be very little doubt.
(First assumption)

he second assumption is equally true in theory,

• but its working out in practice is often most unsatisfactory.

• Undervaluation caused by neglect or prejudice may persist for an inconveniently long time, and the same applies to inflated prices caused by over-enthusiasm or artificial stimulants.
  

The particular danger to the analyst is that, because of such delay, new determining factors may supervene before the market price adjusts itself to value as he found it. In other words, by the time the price finally does reflect the value, this value may have changed considerably and the facts and reasoning on which his decision was based may no longer be applicable.

he analyst must seek to guard himself against this danger as best he can :

• by dealing with those situations preferably which are not subject to sudden change;
• in part, by favoring securities in which the popular interest is keen enough to promise a fairly swift response to value elements which he is the first to recognize;
• by tempering his activities to the general financial situation--laying more emphasis on the discovery of undervalued securities when business and market conditions are a fairly even keel,
• and proceeding with greater caution in times of abnormal stress and uncertainty.

我個人認為﹐掌握了A階段﹐有可能是賺錢﹐也有可能是虧損﹐即係50﹕50的比率。
既然掌握的安全距離﹐只不過得到50%的勝算﹐不化算吧﹖
不過﹐也應該承認﹐有時候確是虧損﹐而且是成事實的嚴重虧損﹐所以認為有50%的勝算﹐即係50%會輸﹐是事實﹐就是事實。

那麼﹐勝算50%+X﹐有沒有可能﹖

我個人認為﹐X就在B階段。


X

• Hence this technique is more useful when applied to senior securities (which are protected against change) than to common stock;
• more useful when applied to a business of inherently stable character than to one subject to wide variations;
• in part, by favoring securities in which the popular interest is keen enough to promise a fairly swift response to value elements which he is the first to recognize;
• more useful when carried on under fairly normal general conditions than in times of great uncertainty and radical change.
• and proceeding with greater caution in times of abnormal stress and uncertainty.