Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Management VS Market Price

Graham不談quality approach﹐主要是它無法數字化﹐所以很難得到客觀以及邏輯的價值結論。

不能否認﹐我也因此對管理層品牌這件事﹐過于草率和馬虎。

我以為擁有超過10年盈利紀錄的企業﹐健康的資產和負債﹐如果價格處于歷史的便宜區﹐這是吸引人的股票。那麼管理層的環節﹐是可以忽略的。

關於這點﹐我認為﹐我的功課做的不夠深。


最近﹐我從Graham的兩部經典﹐發覺原來Graham談quality approach的深度﹐絕對不比quantitative approach少。


例子﹕
Intelligent Investor﹐page 110

Something should be said about the significance of average market price as a measure of managerial competence. The stockholder judges whether his own investment has been successful in terms both of dividends received and of the long-range trend of the average market value. The same criteria should logically be applied in testing the effectiveness of a company's management and the soundness of its attitude toward the owners of the business.

This statement may sound like a truism, but it needs to be emphasized. For as yet there is no accepted technique or approach by which management is brought to the bar of market opinion. On the contrary, managements have always insisted that they have no responsibility of any kind for what happens to the market value of their shares. It is true, of course, that they are not accountable for those fluctuations in price which, as we have been insisting, bear no relationship to underlying conditions and values. But it is only the lack of alertness and intelligent among the rank and file of stockholders that permits this immunity to extend to the entire realm of market quotations, including the permanent establishment of a depreciated and unsatisfactory price level. Good managements produce a good average market price, and bad managements produce bad market prices.

2 comments:

  1. Cow hing,

    Great!
    you are more competent.

    someone taking the quantitative approach as the only standard of value investment. it is not enough. results are historical figure. it can help to cross check the prediction analysis but not the major factor of investment.
    investment is base on the prediction of future prospect.

    cheers,
    Spyder

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Spyder,

    Thanks for comment.

    The investor should demand, in addition, a satisfactory ration of earnings to price, a sufficiently strong financial position, and the prospect that its earnings will at least be maintained over the years. This may appear like demanding a lot from a modestly priced stock, but the prescription is not hard to fill under all but dangerously high market conditions.(II, page 104)

    .........
    Present market condition is like gold raining from sky, it is easy to get a bucket full of prescription issues. It is better priority select averaged expected growth issues at reasonable price than 'cigar butt' issues. As long as the earning power of his holdings remains satisfactory, he can give as little attention as he pleases to the vagaries of the stock market. More than that, at times he can use these vagaries to play the master game of buying low and selling high.

    ReplyDelete