| 投資組合﹕ | 现值 |
| 佔總现值 | |
| 渣打銀行 | 21% |
| 宏利金融 | 19% |
| 中海油 | 16% |
| 領匯 | 15% |
| 建設銀行 | 12% |
| 鷹美國際 | 4% |
| 恒隆地產 | 4% |
| 現金 | 10% |
交易活動:
26-4-10(星期1)
以市價3.29加馬-鷹美國際(2368)
27-4-10(星期2)
以市價36.15沽清中國人壽(2628)
以成本29.18買入恒隆地產(101)
表現:
| 09 收市價 | 收市價 | |||
| 或成本 | 30-Apr | 比較 | ||
| 中海油 | 12.2 | 13.84 | 13% | |
| 渣打銀行 | 194.7 | 215.00 | 10% | |
| 宏利金融 | 140.9 | 144.70 | 3% | |
| 現金 | 0% | |||
| 建設銀行 | 6.48 | 6.42 | -1% | |
| 恒隆地產 | 29.18 | 28.50 | -2% | |
| 領匯 | 19.82 | 19.14 | -3% | |
| 恒生Ｈ股ＥＴＦ | 124.26 | 119.10 | -4% | |
| 鷹美國際 | 3.30 | 3.16 | -4% | |
| 盈富基金 | 22 | 20.90 | -5% |
| S&P 500 | 1115.1 | 1,186.68 | 6% | |
| 道瓊斯 | 10428.05 | 11,008.61 | 6% | |
| 組合 | 5.41% | |||
| 恒生指數 | 21872.5 | 21,108.59 | -3% | |
| 國企指數 | 12794.13 | 12,181.20 | -5% |
B) 美國組合
| 投資組合﹕ | 投资 |
| 佔投资额 | |
| Bank of America | 25% |
| BP plc (ADR) | 23% |
| Exxon Mobil | 14% |
| General Elect | 13% |
| Well Fargo | 13% |
| Goldm Sachs | 12% |
交易活動:
26-4-10(星期1)
以市價78.30沽清-NIKE(NYSE:NKE)
28-4-10(星期3)
以市價17.74加馬- BAC
29-4-10(星期4)
以市價77.83沽清- Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE﹕brk.b)
以市價54.35加馬-BP plc (ADR)
表現:
| 成本 | 收市價 | |||
| 30-Apr | 比較 | |||
| Vanguard 500 Index | 102.67 | 109.43 | 7% | |
| Well Fargo | 31.57 | 33.11 | 5% | |
| Bank of America | 17.80 | 17.83 | 0% | |
| 現金 | 0% | |||
| Exxon Mobil | 68.48 | 67.77 | -1% | |
| General Elec | 19.52 | 18.86 | -3% | |
| BP | 58.12 | 52.15 | -10% | |
| Goldm Sachs | 185.46 | 145.20 | -22% | |
| S&P 500 | 1115.1 | 1,186.68 | 6% | |
| 道瓊斯 | 10428.05 | 11,008.61 | 6% | |
| 恒生指數 | 21872.5 | 21,108.59 | -3% | |
| 國企指數 | 12794.13 | 12,181.20 | -5% | |
| 組合 | -4.88% |
| Treasury Yield 13 weeks | 0.05 | 0.16 | 220% | |
| Treasury Yield 30 Years | 4.64 | 4.53 | -2% | |
| Treasury Yield 10 Years | 3.84 | 3.66 | -5% | |
| Treasury Yield 5 Years | 2.69 | 2.42 | -10% |
我的看法﹕
1)
四月的最後一個星期﹐我的股票真的像過山車﹐奈何卻是在低潮。
我是說GS和BP。
GS惹了官司。
BP 的油田出了意外﹐官司是勉不了。
兩者除了可能要賠償﹐損失最大的要算是名譽了。
我能做什麼呢﹖cut loss? 需要嗎﹖
Mr.Graham﹐在The Intelligent Investor [The Investor and Market Fluctuations]如此說﹕
The investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances. He should always remember that market quotations are there for his convenience, either to be taken for advantage of or to be ignored. He should never buy a stock because it has gone up or sell one because it has gone down. He would not be far wrong if this motto read more simply :
"Never buy stock immediately after a substantial rise or sell one immediately after a substantial drop."
Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend and to the operating results of his companies.
2)
GS 的數據 (每股--美元)
| IB | TPI | AMS | 淨利息收入 | 總 收益 | 支出 | Net Profit | 股息 | 帳面值 | R/ 帳面值 | 股息/ 帳面值 | |
| 2003 | 4.1 | 14.5 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 27.2 | (19.6) | 5.1 | 0.6 | 36.7 | 14% | 2% |
| 2004 | 5.6 | 20.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 35.5 | (23.5) | 8.4 | 0.8 | 42.5 | 20% | 2% |
| 2005 | 6.1 | 26.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 42.8 | (28.0) | 10.3 | 0.9 | 44.5 | 23% | 2% |
| 2006 | 9.5 | 40.7 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 63.8 | (39.2) | 15.9 | 1.3 | 55.4 | 29% | 2% |
| 2007 | 12.8 | 50.4 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 77.9 | (48.1) | 19.3 | 1.4 | 67.3 | 29% | 2% |
| 2008 | 8.8 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 37.7 | (33.7) | 3.5 | 1.4 | 81.2 | 4% | 2% |
| 2009 | 8.1 | 48.9 | 6.9 | 12.6 | 76.6 | (43.0) | 20.7 | 3.7 | 108.1 | 19% | 3% |
| 2010 1Q | 2.0 | 15.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 21.7 | (12.9) | 5.6 |
IB = Investment banking
TPI = Trading & principle Investment
AMS = Asset management & securities service
我的計算﹕
當今市價 | 145.20 |
| 正常年 | |
| 每股帳面值 | 108.00 |
| R/帳面值 | 20% |
| 每股盈利 | 21.60 |
| 投資回報 | 15% |
| P/B | 1.3 |
| 股息/帳面值 | 3% |
| 每股股息 | 3.24 |
| 股息回報 | 2.2% |
| 我的平均成本 | 185.46 |
| P/B | 1.7 |
| 我的盈利回報 | 11.6% |
| 我的股息回報 | 1.7% |
我無法猜測官司的結局﹐也不知道GS 的盈利能力是否能夠繼續存在。
但是﹐我肯定的是﹐如果GS 能夠恢復正常﹐並且維持如此的盈利能力﹐我的平均成本是屬于reasonable price。
(巴菲特對GS 的選擇權--115美元是very-very-very attractive price。)
我只想把焦點放在將來的業績﹐而不是受群眾的情緒影響。
3)
對于BP﹐我的思路如以上。
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