投資股票時應該要以投資債券的心態

兵荒馬亂的六月﹐我得到安撫內心漣漪的良藥﹔閱讀塞思.卡拉曼(Seth A. Klarman)的著作‘MARGIN OF SAFETY Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor’。

‘Intelligent Investor’ 講述Safety Of Margin的篇幅有限﹐對投資新人可是不容易了解和吸收。Seth A. Klarman 針對了這點﹐以各種角度協助讀者了解Safety Of Margin的思想。

如欲得到Safety Of Margin﹐就得要了解Security Analysis﹐這是無法分開的﹐是必需的。

The essential point is that security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security. It needs only to establish that the value is adequate(足夠), to protect a bond or to justify a stock purchase-or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price. For such purposes an indefinite(含糊) and approximate(近似) measure of the intrinsic value may be sufficient.

成功的投資是沒有特別秘訣﹐Safety Of Margin是建築在超級保守的分析。

Businesses, unlike debt instruments, do not have contractual(契約) cash flows. As a result, they cannot be as precisely valued as bonds. Benjamin Graham knew how hard it is to pinpoint the
value of businesses and thus of equity securities that represent fractional ownership of those businesses. In Security Analysis he and David Dodd discussed the concept of a range of value.

所謂的Businesses即是指企業(股票)。
既然前輩苦口婆心勸告沒有明顯的方法可以預測未來將如何變化﹐所以投資者仍須遵循價值投資的理論。通過廣泛的基本分析﹐嚴守規則﹐以無盡的耐心來控制風險﹐減少損失﹐價值投資者便可以預見不錯的成果﹐而且下跌風險有限。

整個‘Security Analysis’ 裡﹐佔最大篇幅和講述最多的是債券。原因在于﹕
我們投資股票時應該要以投資債券的心態﹐即是現金流入固定和可預測﹐
投資是為了現金流入+避免損失