判斷企業價值

從投資股票獲利﹐基本上有3種方法﹕

1. 企業營運產生來的現金﹐這將反映在股價上昇﹐或者股息增加
2. 股價上昇是因為市場先生樂意對這企業付出更高的買價
3. 股價上昇是因為市場先生認為之前的股價低于企業價值﹐所以抬高了股價﹐股價與價值之差變小了
   

Seth A. Klarman 說﹕
‘To be a value investor, you must buy at a discount from underlying value. Analyzing each potential value investment opportunity therefore begins with an assessment of business value.

While a great many methods of business valuation exist, there are only three that I find useful.’

1. Net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV is the discounted value of all future cash flows that a business is expected to generate.In effect, value businesses using the multiples paid when comparable businesses were previously bought and sold in their entirety.
2. The second method of business valuation analyzes liquidation value(清盤價值), the expected proceeds if a company were to be dismantled and the assets sold off. Breakup value, one variant of liquidation analysis, considers each of the components of a business at its highest valuation, whether as part of a going concern or not.
3. The third method of valuation, stock market value, is an estimate of the price at which a company, or its subsidiaries considered separately, would trade in the stock market.Less reliable than the other two, this method is only occasionally useful as a yardstick of value.

所以﹐懂得如何判斷企業價值(underlying value)﹐才能成為成功的投資人。