BP 2009年 業績

1) 基本數據

	每股盈利	每股總資產	ROA	ROE
2003	2.84	48	5.9%	14.4%
2004	4.25	53	8.0%	19.9%
2005	6.41	55	11.7%	28.8%
2006	5.38	61	8.8%	21.4%
2007	6.02	68	8.9%	20.7%
2008	6.66	69	9.7%	23.1%
2009	5.16	71	7.3%	16.1%
平均	5.25	61	8.6%	19.8%

	每股盈利
2008 1Q	2.19
2008 2Q	3.62
2008 3Q	2.17
2008 4Q	-1.10
2009 1Q	0.77
2009 2Q	1.25
2009 3Q	1.56
2009 4Q	1.54

2) Dividends

	每股股息	股價-下限	股價-上限
2003	1.57	36	49
2004	1.68	48	62
2005	2.05	57	71
2006	2.28	65	76
2007	2.52	60	78
2008	3.27	41	74
2009	3.32	34	60
平均	2.38	49	67
平均DY	4.3%	4.9%	3.5%
最高DY	5.9%
當今市價	55

我的看法﹕

1. 組合平均買入價﹕62.46美元﹐估計2010年股息能保持3.32美元﹐估計DY﹕5.3%。
2. 當初買入的原因是為了股息收入﹐能得到DY 5.3% ﹐我滿意。

Segment Information Update
A) Exploration and Production

1. Production for the quarter was 4,054mboe/d, 3% higher than the fourth quarter of 2008。
2. Production for the full year was 3,998mboe/d, 4% higher than the same period last year。Unit production costs were 12% lower than 2008。
3. BP Trinidad and Tobago (bpTT) announced the start of natural gas production from the Savonette field offshore Trinidad (bpTT 100%). Savonette is located approximately 50 miles off Trinidad’s south-east coast and production from the platform is tied into bpTT’s Mahogany B platform。
4. On 3 November,BP and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) announced that they signed a contract with Iraq's state-owned South Oil Company (SOC) to expand production from the Rumaila oilfield, near Basra in southern Iraq. BP will hold a 38% working interest.
5. joint venture VICO (owned jointly by BP and ENI) signed a production-sharing contract with the Government of Indonesia for the exploration and development of coalbed methane resources on the Sanga-Sanga block in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. BP will have a 37.8% interest in the contract.
6. BP divested its interests in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, carrying oil between Kazakhstan and Russia, by selling its 46% stake in LukArco to Russia’s Lukoil for $1.6 billion in cash in three instalments over two years starting in December 2009.
7. On 3 January 2010, BP received approval from the Government of Jordan to join the state-owned National Petroleum Company to exploit the onshore Risha concession in the north-east of the country.
8. Expect production in 2010 to be slightly lower than in 2009.

B) Refining and Marketing

1. Compared with a year ago the result for the fourth quarter reflected a continued weaker overall Refining and Marketing environment, including a refining indicator margin of $1.49 per barrel compared with $5.20 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2008. BP’s actual refining margin declined even more than the indicator margin during this period. In addition, rising crude prices and reduced volatility compressed marketing margins and led to a weaker supply and trading contribution. These factors were somewhat offset by stronger operational performance and lower costs.
2. For the full year, the result after adjusting for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects was 9% better than in 2008 in an environment where refining indicator margins fell by almost 40%.This was due to significantly stronger operational performance, with 93.6% refining availability and cash cost(b) reductions of over 15%. In the international businesses, performance was better than in 2008, driven by lower costs.
3. Looking forward, in 2010 we expect refining margins to remain weak.
   

C) Other businesses and corporate
Other businesses and corporate comprises the Alternative Energy business, Shipping, the group's aluminium asset, Treasury (which includes interest income on the group's cash and cash equivalents), and corporate activities worldwide.

In Alternative Energy, our solar business achieved quarterly sales of 88MW in the fourth quarter, with total sales of 203MW for the full year. This compares with 42MW in the same quarter last year and 162MW for full-year 2008.

In our US wind business, full commercial operation began at our wholly-owned 25MW Titan I Wind Farm in South Dakota and at the second phase of the Fowler Ridge Wind Farm in Indiana, a 50:50 joint venture between BP Wind Energy and Sempra Generation. Fowler Ridge is the largest wind farm in the US Midwest and this most recent phase has a gross capacity of 200MW. BP’s net wind generation capacity(b) at the end of 2009 was 711MW (1,237MW gross), compared with 432MW (785MW gross) at the end of 2008.

In November, the US Department of Energy signed a co-operative agreement with Hydrogen Energy California LLC (HECA) (BP 50%, Rio Tinto 50%) to build and demonstrate a hydrogen-powered electricity generating facility, complete with carbon capture and storage, in Kern County, California.

In 2010, we expect the quarterly loss, excluding non-operating items, for Other businesses and corporate to average around $400 million.



總結﹐我的看法﹕

1. BP 認為2010年的盈利不會成長。
2. 我認為2010年的盈利會輕微減少。但不會影響派息。