The Factor of Human Nature

The Factor of Human Nature (人類的本性)
(SA, Page 11)

One of the striking feature(特色) of the past five years has been the domination(支配) of the financial scene by purely psychological(心理﹐精神) elements. In previous bull market the rise in stock prices remained in fairly close relationship with the improvement in business during the greater part of the cycle............................We suggest that this psychological phenomenon(現像) is closely related to the dominant importance assumed in recent year by intangible factor of value, good will, management, expected earning power, etc. Such value factors, while undoubtedly real, are not susceptible(可以) to mathematical calculation; hence the standards by which they are measured are to a great(大) extent(範圍) arbitrary(隨心所欲) and can suffer the widest variations(變化) in accordance with the prevalent(流行的) psychology


在過去5年﹐金融市場最大的特點就是被純粹的心理因素控制。在以前的牛市﹐股價的上漲和業務的改善有很大的關係................................我們認為這種心理因素﹐是因為過度注重在無形因素﹐如商譽﹐管理﹐未來盈利之類。這些因素﹐無可否認很重要﹐但是卻無法以數字計算﹔因為這些因素的標準﹐變化很大﹐而且隨著流行的變動而變動。