Speculation Not a Satisfactory Substitute For Investment

Speculation Not a Satisfactory Substitute(代替) For Investment
(SA, Page 12)

If the field of a sound investment has suffered a severe(嚴重的) contraction(收縮), as we suggested above, it would seem natural to turn our attention to intelligent(聰明) speculation(投機), on the theory that a good speculation is undoubtedly(真的) superior(優秀) to a poor investment. But here again we must recognize(承認) that the psychology of the speculator militates(影響) strongly against his success. For, by relation of cause and effect, he is most optimistic when prices are highest and most despondent(沮喪) when they are at bottom. Hence, in the nature of thing, only the exceptional(最卓越的) speculator can prove consistently(持續) successful, and no one has logical right to believe that he will succeed where most of his companions(同伴)must fail. For this reason, training in speculation, however intelligent and thorough(完善的), is likely to prove(證明) a misfortune(不幸的事) to the individual, since it may lead him into market activities, which starting in most cases with small success, almost invariably(總是) end in major disaster.

If investment is likely to prove unsatisfactory(不滿意) and speculation is certain to be dangerous(危險), to what may the intelligent student turn? Perhaps he would be well advised to devote(將) his attention to the field of undervalued securities-issues, whether bonds or stocks, which are selling well below the apparently(表面上) justified(有理由) by a careful analysis of the relevant(有關的) facts(事實). The opportunities(機會) in this direction have always been numerous(很多) and varied(各式各樣), and they are discussed at lenght in later chapters of this book. It is true that bargain hunting(覓購便宜貨) in securities is not without it pitfalls(陷阱), and in recent years especially it has been subject to many disadvantages(損失) and disappointments(失望). Yet under more normal condition it should yield satisfactory average results, and, most important of all, it promotes a fundamentally(重要的) conservative(保守) point of view, which should constitute(設立) a valuable(有價值的) safeguard(保護罩) againt speculative temptations(誘惑).

如果投資的回報嚴重不理想﹐如我們之前建議的﹐很自然的我們會注意到聰明的投機﹐理論上‘好的投機’的回報是真的好過‘差的投資’。但是﹐我們必須承認強烈影響投機客成功的是他的心理(精神)。有前因必有後果﹐他最樂觀的時候是當股價在最高點﹐最沮喪的時候是當股價在最低點。所以﹐很自然的﹐只有最卓越的投機客才能證明持續的成功﹐可是你又無法相信他會成功﹐因為他的同伴都失敗了。因為這個原因﹐練習投機﹐不管是聰明還是苦練﹐可以意料他將會不幸﹐當他在市場內買賣﹐只會在大部份買賣得到蠅頭小利﹐卻總是在大熊市中輸掉。

如果投資無利可圖﹐而投機又充危險﹐聰明人應該怎麼辦﹖也許他應該注意被低估的證券﹐只要是通過仔細的分析而且有數據相信股價是便宜的債券或股票。在這方面有很多機會而且各式各樣。當然﹐買便宜貨也會有陷阱﹐而且近年也反應了損失和失望。但在通常的情形下﹐它會產生滿意的平均回報﹐更重要的是﹐它代表了穩健和保守的態度﹐成為對投機的有效保護罩。