| 投資組合﹕ | 现值 |
| 總现值 | |
| 渣打銀行 | 20% |
| 宏利金融 | 18% |
| 領匯 | 15% |
| 中海油 | 12% |
| 建設銀行 | 11% |
| 江西銅業 | 11% |
| 中國人壽 | 5% |
| 百盛 | 4% |
| 恒生Ｈ股ＥＴＦ | 3% |
| 現金 | 2% |
交易活動:
以18.55的平均市價減持領匯。
以16.52的市價加馬江西銅業。
以12.78的市價加馬中海油。
以6.13的市價加馬建設銀行。
表現:
| 09 收市價 | 收市價 | |||
| 或成本 | 19-Mar | 比較 | ||
| 宏利金融 | 140.9 | 156.00 | 11% | |
| 百盛 | 12.94 | 13.92 | 8% | |
| 中國人壽 | 34.41 | 36.95 | 7% | |
| 渣打銀行 | 194.7 | 208.00 | 7% | |
| 中海油 | 12.2 | 12.66 | 4% | |
| 江西銅業 | 16.37 | 16.84 | 3% | |
| 現金 | 0% | |||
| 恒生Ｈ股ＥＴＦ | 124.26 | 122.30 | -2% | |
| 盈富基金 | 22 | 21.55 | -2% | |
| 領匯 | 19.82 | 19.28 | -3% | |
| 建設銀行 | 6.48 | 6.26 | -3% | |
| 組合 | 4.62% | |||
| S&P 500 | 1115.1 | 1,165.82 | 5% | |
| 道瓊斯 | 10428.05 | 10,779.17 | 3% | |
| 恒生指數 | 21872.5 | 21,370.82 | -2% | |
| 國企指數 | 12794.13 | 12,262.36 | -4% |
B) 美國組合
| 投資組合﹕ | 投资 | |
| 佔投资额 | ||
| 石油 | Exxon Mobil | 17% |
| 跨行業 | General Elect | 16% |
| 傳統銀行 | Well Fargo | 15% |
| 保險 | Berkshire Hathaway | 15% |
| 投資銀行 | Goldm Sachs | 15% |
| 石油 | BP plc (ADR) | 12% |
| 傳統銀行 | Bank of America | 5% |
| 非必需品 | Nike | 5% |
交易活動:
這星期無交易活動。
表現:
| 成本 | 收市價 | |||
| 19-Mar | 比較 | |||
| Nike | 68.65 | 73.52 | 7% | |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 77.65 | 82.06 | 6% | |
| Vanguard 500 Index | 102.67 | 107.24 | 4% | |
| 現金 | 0% | |||
| Exxon Mobil | 68.48 | 67.04 | -2% | |
| Well Fargo | 31.57 | 30.38 | -4% | |
| Goldm Sachs | 185.46 | 177.90 | -4% | |
| Bank of America | 17.55 | 16.82 | -4% | |
| General Elec | 19.52 | 18.07 | -7% | |
| BP | 62.46 | 57.69 | -8% | |
| S&P 500 | 1115.1 | 1,159.90 | 4% | |
| 道瓊斯 | 10428.05 | 10,732.01 | 3% | |
| 恒生指數 | 21872.5 | 21,370.82 | -2% | |
| 組合 | -2.6% | |||
| 國企指數 | 12794.13 | 12,262.36 | -4% | |
| Treasury Yield 13 weeks | 0.05 | 0.14 | 180% | |
| Treasury Yield 30 Years | 4.64 | 4.58 | -1% | |
| Treasury Yield 10 Years | 3.84 | 3.69 | -4% | |
| Treasury Yield 5 Years | 2.69 | 2.45 | -9% |
我的看法﹕
我的投資的方式有如玩 farm ville﹐我傾向先考慮土地的結構和營養成分(環境﹑經濟氣候﹑知識)﹐才考慮選擇種子的品類(蔬菜﹑果樹﹑樹)﹐再把土地分割成大中小數塊﹐小的種蔬菜﹐中的種樹﹐大的種果樹。
蔬菜﹕抵抗力弱但收成快﹐高成長但是高本益比和低或零股息﹔例如百盛
樹 ﹕只要粗壯的樹身不要果子﹐要股價增值不需要股息﹔例如Berkshire Hathaway﹑Goldm
Sachs﹑Nike﹑Bank of America﹑江西銅業
果樹﹕樹身粗壯又結果﹐股價和股息都能成長﹔例如宏利金融﹑中國人壽﹑渣打銀行﹑中海油﹑
領匯﹑建設銀行﹑BP﹑Exxon Mobil﹑Well Fargo﹑General Elec
我傾向長期持有﹐所以我了解長期持有的最大成本是時間。人生有幾個十年﹖錯誤的投資加上長期﹐這損失可大了。為了避免犯錯﹐在投資之前﹐我傾向考慮企業是否有特殊的護城河(特殊行業+競爭力)﹔我認為金融﹑能源﹑礦業和壟斷性都屬于特殊行業﹐我從這些行業裡挑選最有競爭力。
為了避免犯錯﹐在投資之後﹐我傾向不停的檢討﹐如果有懷疑﹐就減少持有﹐甚至沽清﹔如果發現更好的企業﹐我會考慮換馬。我傾向彈性處理。
2010年至今﹐樂觀悲觀已經轉了幾回﹐我祝自己要信念堅定。
我也祝 spyder 君 財源廣進。
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeleteThanks and so do you.
I believe this year is not easy to earn money as last year.
I only buy 1 stock so far, 1688 Alibaba last month and sold today which lost $1 per share. Others stocks are keep unchanged.
Remember you asked my view for The LInk's Wong Tai Sin Centre in January. I review some news and found it has 30% increase in people visits. I think it is so far so good. In the chnage of CEO, I viewd Mr Wong Kwok Lung's profile, he was a investment banker in DBS. My most concern is "does he has good operation skill in property management?"
He is a finance experts and the "result" of 0823 "should be" good, but in long-run, should be base on the management's ability of increasing operation efficiency.
For 0823, I only concern 2 things:
1. the speed of increase of op. efficiency.
2. the speed of increase of property value (renovation).
For sure Mr Wong will not let these 2 things stop or slow down. He may show better PR tactics in implement it but not cease to increase "rent".
Cheers,
Spyder
Dear Spyder :
ReplyDeleteI get the same feeling as you.
Please be optimist, this mean condition is back to normal era.
I mean share price is back to perform base on
1)Profit﹑profit﹑profit
2)Value vs price
in great trend of better economy.
For 0823,i agree with your point.
A good corporate culture can overcome this problem. A success corporate can not depend only CEO, it shall be combination effort from management team + work force + board of director.
Long term invest is more hard than we thought. The key point to success is continuing monitor,keep the good & kick away the worst.
Let us continue monitor & share about 0823.
Do you still hold 0384?
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeleteHa..ha...I'm more conservative now. May be not young at all. :p
I still keep 384. It is the highest proportion in my portfolio. Start to buy in 2005 and collect and reduce time by time.
Yesterday, RTHK1 Mr Shek Kan Chun said "should be careful if it drop under $3.5. I'm not sure but it performs almost good and under my expectation. I will hold it for 5 years more if NO big worst event.
cheers,
Spyder
Dear Spyder:
ReplyDeleteFor 0823.First, i think monopoly advantage is a great value insurance cover for 0823.Second, the business of 0823 is simple as an idiot can run well (collect rent).
We are doing the right thing first(buy a solid fundamental company).
We also doing the first thing right(your buying price is lower enough as safety margin than i do).
If GOD stand at our side, we big gain.
If not, we gain small.
Our situation is better than other speculator, right?
For 0384:
Their business had monopoly advantage.
I check their income statement , i am doubt about their
衍生金融工具之公平值變動
持作買賣投資之公平值變動
投資物業之公平值變動
可供出售之投資之減值虧損
應收客戶合約工程款項之減值虧損
貿易應收賬款及其他應收賬項確認之減值虧損
maybe this normal for pioneer business.
Since you are familiar 0384, i believe you had done precaution plan.
cheers, earn more.
Cow
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeleteEven I hold 0384 for 5 years, I didn't know:
衍生金融工具之公平值變動
持作買賣投資之公平值變動
投資物業之公平值變動
可供出售之投資之減值虧損
應收客戶合約工程款項之減值虧損
貿易應收賬款及其他應收賬項確認之減值虧損
Someone usually argue between FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS or TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. I ignore both, because both are not enough at all. Some wise people talks: FA telling what to buy, TA telling when to buy. I agree but not that simple. I didn't very care the operating figure (not a FA follower) but take it for reference. And I also take chart for reference especially over 3 years charts. Also review the company's history and management's profile. Porter 5 force, value chain analysis, SWOT analysis. Most important is the economic atmosphere.....etc.
My analysis rules for 0384:
1. It has nation police support
2. It's major share holder are great
3. It expand step by step and safety...althougt a little bit slow.
4. It's not possible to winding up
5. It's necessary for daily living
6. Is there substitution?
....etc.
Then apply the above "so-call" analysis methods for evaluation.
This is also why I suggest you to sell HSBC.
Cheers,
Spyder
Dear Spyder,
ReplyDeleteI am respect your view point.
Our objective is same : earn more.
cheers,
cow
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeletemay I know why you interested on 0384?
cheers,
Spyder
Dear Spyder,
ReplyDelete2 point
1)
City gas supplier is a monopoly advantage business.
I like monopoly advantage.
2)Citilization at Mainland create a huge demand for city gas.
Hi Cow,
ReplyDelete衍生金融工具之公平值變動
may be some forward contract for the oil and gas.
持作買賣投資之公平值變動
?
投資物業之公平值變動
may be accommodation for staff
可供出售之投資之減值虧損
?
應收客戶合約工程款項之減值虧損
provision is normal, referring to the % of total 客戶合約工程款項.
貿易應收賬款及其他應收賬項確認之減值虧損
normal provision, compare the % to 貿易應收賬款 & with same sector.
point 2 & 3 are a little bit strange but if figure is not material, I will ignore.
The others are normal in general company operations. If % not high is okay.
cheers,
Spyder
Dear Spyder,
ReplyDeleteA helpful infor
Thanks
Cheers,
Cow