defensive investor approaches

我的英文版本“The Intelligent Investor”是在2006年買的﹐老實說那時候是“看了”/“翻了”﹐可能是沒有緣份﹐無法明白含義。6年內沒有碰它﹐幸好沒有把它當垃圾仍了。

2010年得到華文版本﹐仍然無法明白含義﹐看得昏昏欲睡。

2011年再看回英文版本﹐依然馬虎馬虎。

頓悟-漸悟之間﹐某人能在5分鐘內領悟﹐我卻是最不特出的那個﹐用了很長的時間才能稍微清醒。


2011年最大的開悟是﹐對我這個愚蠢的人﹐最有效的聰明藥就是“The Intelligent Investor”記載的defensive investor approaches 。



Graham把聰明的投資者分類成“defensive”和“enterprising”﹐Graham先談“defensive”然後才談“enterprising”。我猜想﹐Graham應該是認為“defensive”最容易做到的﹐而“enterprising”則需要某些條件。

Graham﹕
The defensive investor who follow our suggestion will purchase only high-grade bonds plus a diversified list of leading common stocks. He is to make sure that the price at which he bought the latter is not unduly high as judged by applicable standards.

只買高級債券和分散買入代表性的股票。經過標準及通用的檢驗﹐價格是合適的。

In setting up this diversified list he has a choice of two approaches, the DJIA-type of portfolio and the quantitatively-tested portfolio.

DJIA-type of portfolio﹕
by buying the same amounts of all thirty of issues in Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

quantitatively-tested portfolio:
would be apply a set of standards to each purchase, to make sure that he obtains

1. a minimum of quality in the past performance and current financial position of the company,
2. a minimum of quantity in terms of earnings and assets per dollar of price.
   

defensive investor approaches有兩招﹐

第一招﹕買入指數中所有的成份股。例如恆生指數中的45個成份股。最簡單的是買入盈富基金(其構成及比重與恆生指數成份股相若)。

第二招﹕經過標準及通用的檢驗﹐過去和現在的“quality”“quantity”都能達到最低要求的股票。


“quality”“quantity”的7種限制﹕

1. Adequate size of the enterprise

Our idea is to exclude small companies which may be subject to more than average vicissitudes especially in the industrial field. (There are often good possibilities in such enterprises but we do not consider them suited to needs of the defensive investor.) Let us use round amounts: not less than $100 million of annual sales for an industrial company and, not less than $50 million of total assets for public utility.

簡單的﹐指數成份股就已經符合條件了。

2. A sufficiently strong financial condition

a so called two-to-one current ratio. Also, long-term debt should not exceed the net current asset. For public utilities the debt should not exceed twice the stock equity (at book value).


3. Earning stability

some earning for the common stock in each of the past ten years.

4. Dividend record

uninterrupted payments for at least the past 20 years.

5. Earning growth

a minimum increase of at least one-third in per share earning in the past 10 year using three year averages at the beginning and end

6. Moderate Price/Earning ratio

current price should not be more than 15 times average earning of the past three year.

7. Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets

PE x P/B should not exceed 22.5


簡單的﹐
第一招是買入全部指數成份股
第二招是買入通過7種限制檢驗的指數成份股



恆生指數成份股(45個)﹕

0001.HK	長江實業
0002.HK	中電控股
0003.HK	香港中華煤氣
0004.HK	九龍倉集團
0005.HK	匯豐控股
0006.HK	電能實業
0011.HK	恒生銀行
0012.HK	恒基地產
0013.HK	和記黃埔
0016.HK	新鴻基地產
0017.HK	新世界發展
0019.HK	太古股份公司Ａ
0023.HK	東亞銀行
0066.HK	港鐵公司
0083.HK	信和置業
0101.HK	恒隆地產
0144.HK	招商局國際
0267.HK	中信泰富
0291.HK	華潤創業
0293.HK	國泰航空
0330.HK	思捷環球
0386.HK	中國石油化工股份
0388.HK	香港交易所
0494.HK	利豐
0688.HK	中國海外發展
0700.HK	騰訊控股
0762.HK	中國聯通
0836.HK	華潤電力
0857.HK	中國石油股份
0883.HK	中國海洋石油
0939.HK	建設銀行
0941.HK	中國移動
1088.HK	中國神華
1109.HK	華潤置地
1199.HK	中遠太平洋
1398.HK	工商銀行
1880.HK	百麗國際
1898.HK	中煤能源
2038.HK	富士康國際
2318.HK	中銀香港
2318.HK	中國平安
2600.HK	中國鋁業
2628.HK	中國人壽
3328.HK	交通銀行
3988.HK	中國銀行

有多少個指數成份股可以通過7種限制檢驗﹖
請看下一篇文章。