| 收市價 | 收市價 | ||
| 31-12-09 | 13-Jan | 比較 | |
| 中遠太平洋 | 9.93 | 12.46 | 25% |
| 宏利金融 | 140.9 | 151.10 | 7% |
| 中海油 | 12.2 | 12.52 | 3% |
| 滙豐控股 | 89.4 | 90.20 | 1% |
| 渣打銀行 | 194.7 | 195.00 | 0% |
| 現金 | 0% | ||
| 盈富基金 | 22 | 21.90 | 0% |
| 恒生H股ETF | 128.2 | 125.00 | -2% |
| 領匯 | 19.82 | 19.02 | -4% |
| 建設銀行 | 6.67 | 6.18 | -7% |
組合﹕+2.66%
| S&P 500 | 1115.1 | 1,145.68 | 3% |
| 道瓊斯 | 10428.05 | 10,680.77 | 2% |
| 恒生指數 | 21872.5 | 21,748.60 | -1% |
| 國企指數 | 12794.13 | 12,474.24 | -3% |
我的看法﹕
1) 建設銀行
我還是保持同樣看法﹐我認為中資銀行股價疲軟最大的原因是﹕目前的價格還是屬于比較高的評價。其他的只是引發調整的借口。
對于政府調高存款準備金﹐我保持正面觀點。
我認為市場反應過敏。
2) 領匯
沒有不利新聞。
股價疲軟可能表示﹕市場情緒還是熱的﹐暫時對這類‘防守性’股票沒興趣。
3) 中遠太平洋
保持強勁。(大戶可能在此建倉)。(經濟復甦可能是真的)
4) 宏利金融
表現良好。(大戶可能在此建倉)。(可能要告別低債券利息了)
5) 滙豐控股和渣打銀行
沒有不利新聞。
總結﹕
組合的風險(表現)保持在我可接受的程度。
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeleteMy view:
1) 建設銀行, it needs to digest rising in last year. still downward. not easy to break last high ~7.46.
2) 領匯, waiting for momentum, may be in March when announce yearly result.
5) 滙豐控股, reach fair value. difficult to break $107, actually, $107 is equal to $150 before share placement.
happy sharing,
Spyder
Dear Spider,
ReplyDeleteDo you familiar with Link property ?
Example :Wong Tai Sin Plaza,......
What do you feel before & after upgrade?
Will it make more profit ?
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeleteI didn't know well about Wong Ti Sin Plaza but I also live in HOS property (semi-private). The service of Link still keeps "官僚" but for sure the rental income can improve after upgrade.
The upgrade improve the outlook and image, and it can increase the asset value, it is good. It still cannot compare with 1st class shopping mall.
The rental income for Link is keep increasing 8% overall since 2005. Some new contracts' rental are calculate by "turnover" portion. This is the way "SOGO" used. It can reduce the initial cost of entrepreneur.
Even many tenants shout The Link increase rent crazy but they still keep doing business there.
e.g. the rent for a pork hawker in my estate's market increase from $10k to $40k but he didn't close his business. This reflect the rental under Housing Authority days' were too low. HA sibsidized those business man.
With the extremely low rental, the valuation of The Link also unbelivable low when IPO.
This is a good case study for "value investment".
Last, I believe it can make more profit. Just wait the market to have consensus and reflect on share price.
Dear Spider
ReplyDeleteLink:
*每股盈利 股價-下限 股價-上限
2006 0.97 11.8 17.7
2007 2.04 15.0 19.9
2008 2.38 15.2 19.7
2009 0.29 11.7 19.6
20101H 2.02 12.9 19.9
平均 1.54 13.3 19.3
平均PE 12 9 13
最高PE 8
當今市價 19
*包括投資物業公平值變動
*每股股息 股價-下限 股價-上限
2006 0.00 11.8 17.7
2007 0.55 15.0 19.9
2008 0.70 15.2 19.7
2009 0.79 11.7 19.6
20101H 0.49 12.9 19.9
**平均 0.63 13.7 19.8
平均DY 3.3% 4.6% 3.2%
最高DY 4.2%
當今市價 19
**2007-20101H
my view :
1) Link share price is more related to dividend given. But without higher earning, no higher dividend.
*每股盈利 股價-下限 股價-上限
2006 0.22 11.8 17.7
2007 0.68 15.0 19.9
2008 0.73 15.2 19.7
2009 0.85 11.7 19.6
20101H 0.50 12.9 19.9
平均 0.60 13.3 19.3
平均PE 32 22 32
最高PE 22
當今市價 19
*不包括投資物業公平值變動
Look on the EPS without 物業公平值, it mean EPS due to rental income.
The market is given a valuation about PE 20x to this EPS .
If rental income is increase annualy by 8%, 2010 EPS estimate is 0.91(0.85x1.08),
The share price maybe range in $18.2 per share.
Positive possibility:
1)If upgrading work is undoubtfully increase rental income. (A lot of plaza not yet update)
2)Rental increase bargain power is increasing.
It may help rental income increase annually faster than 8%.Compare 2009 and 2008 EPS is up 16%.
Happy sharing
Hi Cow,
ReplyDeleteMy forecast of rental increase by 8% is very conservative. It could be better.
Rental increase is "revenue" the gross profit will be more than 8%. Link is also working hard to reduce overhead of property management, then, the net profit will more and more then 8%. Due to inflation, and the bad retail atmosphere in 2008~2009. The final result of 2009 could not be very good but for 2010 would be much better. This will resulting the total dividend for year 2010 will be > $1.2 (I guess).
For 20x PE, the fair value of Link will be 1.2 x 20 = 24.
For a 100% dividend stock, we can treat it as coupon. If a coupon can pay $1.2 interest per year and keep increase yearly. The fair value for Link will be $48.
It is hard to find a stock as good as this. :p
Happy sharing,
Spyder
Dear Spyder,
ReplyDeleteIf a coupon can pay $1.2 interest per year and keep increase yearly. The fair value for Link will be $48.
Bravo!
Cheer!