1)減損及撥備
預測在2010 1H 見頂。
| 每股減損 及撥備 | 減損及撥備 /總收益 | |
| 2003 | -1.01 | 6% |
| 2004 | -0.50 | 6% |
| 2005 | -0.70 | 7% |
| 2006 | -0.65 | 6% |
| 2007 | -1.46 | 13% |
| 平均 | -0.86 | 8% |
| | ||
| 2008 | -4.71 | 38% |
| | ||
| 2009 1Q | -1.07 | 22% |
| 2009 2Q | -1.13 | 23% |
| 2009 3Q | -1.30 | 27% |
| 2009 4Q | -1.23 | 26% |
| 2009全年l | -4.73 | 24% |
| 調整後 | -4.52 |
2) 資本充足率
| Tier 1 capital | Tier 1 common equity | Tier 1 leverage | Total capital | |
| 2008 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 14.5 | 11.8 |
| 2009 2Q | 9.8 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 13.8 |
| 2009 3Q | 10.6 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 14.7 |
| 2009 4Q | 9.3 | 6.5 | 13.3 |
3) 撥備前利潤增加45%
| 每股 撥備前利潤 | 每股 減損及撥備 | 每股盈利 | |
| 2003 | 6.67 | -1.01 | 3.72 |
| 2004 | 3.64 | -0.50 | 2.05 |
| 2005 | 4.08 | -0.70 | 2.25 |
| 2006 | 4.36 | -0.65 | 2.47 |
| 2007 | 4.90 | -1.46 | 2.38 |
| 平均 | 4.73 | -0.86 | 2.57 |
| 2008 | 5.67 | -4.71 | 0.70 |
| 2009 | 8.27 | -4.52 | 1.75 |
4) ROE 和 ROA
| 每股盈利 | 每股總資產 | ROA% | ROE | |
| 2003 | 3.72 | 228 | 1.6% | 18.3% |
| 2004 | 2.05 | 125 | 1.6% | 18.5% |
| 2005 | 2.25 | 141 | 1.6% | 18.9% |
| 2006 | 2.47 | 141 | 1.8% | 18.4% |
| 2007 | 2.38 | 170 | 1.4% | 16.9% |
| 2008 | 0.70 | 386 | 0.2% | 2.4% |
| 2009 | 1.75 | 259 | 0.7% | 8.1% |
| 平均 | 2.19 | 207 | 1.1% | 13.3% |
5) 平均PE ratio
| 每股盈利 | 股價-下限 | 股價-上限 | |
| 2003 | 3.72 | 23 | 29 |
| 2004 | 2.05 | 28 | 32 |
| 2005 | 2.25 | 29 | 32 |
| 2006 | 2.47 | 32 | 37 |
| 2007 | 2.38 | 27 | 37 |
| 2008 | 0.70 | 22 | 40 |
| 2009 | 1.75 | 8 | 31 |
| 平均 | 2.19 | 24 | 34 |
| 平均PE ratio | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 最低PE ratio | 11 | ||
| 當今市價 | 28 |
我的看法﹕
減損及撥備逐漸恢復正常 + 因並購Wachovia所以營業額翻倍 + 擺脫TARP = 隱藏著巨大的價值
WFC 大當家的看法﹕
‘As this past year’s financial performance has shown, the earnings capability of Wells Fargo’s business model has significant power to generate capital internally. Because of the value we created in 2009 for our customers and communities, we were able to achieve record revenue and earnings for the year.
As we enter 2010, we believe our franchise has never been better positioned to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead of it. The Wells Fargo model has been built to outperform our peers over time and through cycles. Clearly we have done just that again in 2009 and believe that this very same model and execution discipline will continue to outperform the industry in the years and cycles ahead.’
Diluted earnings per common share of $1.75 reduced by $0.76 per share for TARP preferred stock dividends, including the deemed dividend upon redemption of TARP preferred stock。
The Wachovia integration is proceeding as expected. Credit losses are tracking better than originally estimated at the time of the merger. Expense synergies are on track for $5 billion in annual run rate savings upon completion of the integration in 2011 and cumulative integration costs are now expected to be $3 billion less than the originally assumed $8 billion.
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