Tuesday, July 13, 2010

領匯的自由現金

回應Spyder兄﹕
領匯的自由現金來源
12mth 12mth 12mth 12mth
31-Mar-10 31-Mar-09 31-Mar-08 31-Mar-07
經營業務的現金流入 2,998 2,894 2,517 2,756
添置投資物業 (717) (813) (485) (271)
添置物業、廠房及設備 (39) (36) (10) (29)
自由現金 2,242 2,045 2,022 2,456
每股自由現金 1.02 0.93 0.92 1.12
平均 1.00
每股股息(港元) 0.97 0.78 0.69 0.53
平均 0.74
股息佔自由現金% 95% 84% 75% 48%



添置投資物業﹕現在進行中的商場提昇工程

添置物業、廠房及設備 ﹕必需的維修費用

商場提昇支出大約7億港元﹐以領匯的2202百萬流通股數計算﹐大約是0.33港元。
如果不進行商場提昇﹐股東可能額外得到0.33港元股息。

商場提昇對股東收益貢獻了多少數目﹖管理層無法給予確定的數字﹐我也明白這是很難計算。

如果不進行商場提昇﹐租金能提昇多少﹖
進行了商場提昇﹐租金能提昇多少﹖
倆者之間相差多少﹖我們才能知道投入的資金有無值得。

當然﹐進行了商場提昇﹐對公眾就能產生吸引力。人潮增加就對有實力的聯鎖商店有吸引力。有了著名的聯鎖商店﹐人潮就更增加。領匯的租金bargain power 就增加。
當然能夠有數據分析是最好不過了。

4 comments:

  1. Hi Cow,

    thanks a lot. :)
    "商場提昇對股東收益貢獻了多少數目﹖管理層無法給予確定的數字﹐我也明白這是很難計算。"
    They provided a reference Rate-of-Return in annual report. It is around 13~15%. This may not 100% correct but very important. If they didn't provide such estimated figure. It is no ground to dicide "進行商場提昇". Then the management team is dis-qualified.

    I want you to analysis 0823 because 自由現金 is a gimmick factor. If no specific use, it should pay dividend to shareholder. Even the company has new project, it can raise fund from the money market. If a firm hold too much "free-cash" reflect it doesn't using resouce effectively.

    If you are interested on this, try to analysis 0013.

    cheers,
    Spyder

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Spyder,

    They could provide rate of return, mean that they could provide figure in $.

    I prefer $ figure.

    經營業務的現金流入
    Mar 2010 :2998
    Mar 2009 :2894
    Mar 2008 :2517
    Mar 2007 :2756

    添置投資物業
    Mar 2010 :-717
    Mar 2009 :-813
    Mar 2008 :-485
    Mar 2007 :-271

    13-15% rate of return, could management pls tell us that we earn 13%x717=93.21 in annual report, in $ figure?
    Why not ?

    ReplyDelete
  3. it could be a taxi driver scenario

    refer to 自由現金 (6)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Cow,

    It's because percentage is more useful in financial analysis and support decision making.

    e.g. if the management says the IRR is 8% but they still go ahead, I will sell the stock off. If they tell me the return is 0.9321 bn., then I have no idea it is worth or not worth to support the management's decision.

    I support 0823 because they hold some fund to renew the asset that it will generate 13% income in future (tehy believe). If I can make more then 13% benefit from dividend, I will prefer they pay more dividend.

    cheers,
    Spyder

    ReplyDelete