好東西就在身上

Seth Klarman 說

Investors can apply present-value analysis in one of two ways.

1. They can calculate the present-value of a business and use it to place a value on its securities.
   
2. Alternatively, they can calculate the present-value of the cash flows that security holders will receive: interest and principal payments in the case of bondholders and dividends and estimated future share prices in the case of stockholders.
   

Calculating the present value of contractual interest and principal payments is the best way to value a bond. Analysis of the underlying business can then help to establish the probability that those cash flows will be received.

By contrast, analyzing the cash flows of the underlying business is the best way to value a stock. The only cash flows that investors typically receive from a stock are dividends.

The dividend-discount method of valuation, which calculates the present value of a projected stream of future dividend payments, is not a useful tool for valuing equities; for most stocks, dividends constitute only a small fraction of total corporate cash flow and must be projected. at least several decades into the future to give a meaningful approximation of business value. Accurately predicting that far ahead is an impossibility.

Seth Klarman 的意思是我們不能把股息當成自由現金﹐因為股息只是自由現金的一小部分。

我心理想﹐
如果﹐某張股票長年派發的股息佔了自由現金的90%以上﹐不就得了嗎﹖

如果﹐某張股票長年派發的股息佔了自由現金的90%以上﹐而且是明文規定(法律約束)﹐不就是等于債券了嗎﹖

我就能化繁為簡﹐避開我不懂的東西了。

而且﹐我愛股息﹐尤其是股息到手後﹐股價能夠高于買入價 ﹐心底就有扎實感覺。
投資股票時應該要以投資債券的心態﹐即是現金流入固定和可預測﹐
投資是為了現金流入+避免損失

這才是我能明白的東西。

領匯 (823)已經滿足了我的要求。
它給我的股息率達到5 .8%﹐現在的市價17%高于我的成本﹐
我是達到了投資是為了現金流入+避免損失

原來我忙著東張西望找尋‘好股票’而懊惱的時候﹐好東西就在身上(我是領匯尊貴的股東之一)。